ANALISIS DAMPAK JANGKA PANJANG KRISIS GLOBAL TERHADAP ANGKA PENGANGGURAN DI INDONESIA

Abstract

This research aims to conduct an in-depth analysis of the long-term impact of global economic crises on the dynamics of unemployment rates in Indonesia. Economic crises, characterized by sharp contractions in Gross Domestic Product (GDP), exchange rate fluctuations, and price instability, often serve as the primary triggers for disruptions in the national labor market. Utilizing a literature review approach and secondary data analysis spanning from the 2008 global financial crisis to the post-pandemic era, this study dissects the transmission mechanisms of the crisis through trade channels and foreign investment. The analysis reveals that the global crisis not only leads to a significant decline in GDP but also triggers a weakening of the existence of Okun's Law in Indonesia, where post-crisis economic growth tends to be "jobless growth" or is not followed by optimal labor absorption. This condition is exacerbated by structural issues such as the mismatch between labor supply and demand, as well as the low absorption capacity of the industrial sector toward educated graduates. As a mitigation measure, this research recommends the necessity of diversifying the economic base, stabilizing flexible monetary policies, and strengthening the role of MSMEs and the grassroots economy as pillars of national resilience in facing potential global shocks in the future (Syahbana et al., 2024; Muanas & Milhani, 2021; Ariffianti et al., 2025; Frisnoiry et al., 2024).